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With election nearing a resolution, investors see some market-friendly themes emerging

first_imgTraders agreed that the Federal Reserve would remain accomodative and that some kind of fiscal stimulus was coming from Congress, but there’s no agreement on the timing or size of the deal.“I think it’s certain that the Fed is going to continue to be extraordinarily easy for a long  time to come…and I also think that it’s certain that we’re going to get fiscal stimulus.” Strategas Research Partners Chairman Jason Trennert told CNBC. Liz Young, BNY Mellon Investment Director of Market Strategy, said stimulus would now dominate the markets. “Both parties want stimulus,” she told CNBC. “That’s going to drive a rally  that’s going to drive positivity and the sequence of events matter so if you get a fiscal  package and a vaccine around at the same two or three-month period that’s huge upside in the stock market.”The good news: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said a stimulus bill would be the Senate’s top priority before year end, and indicated aid to states — a major stumbling point in prior negotiations — might be included.Everyone will be tough on ChinaNo matter who wins, the stance toward China has hardened. “I think we pick a fight with China no matter what,” Peter Tchir from Academy Securities told me.Not everyone is convinced. “The world expects Biden to be easier on China, I hope that is not true,” Kyle Bass said on CNBC, noting that the dollar weakened against the Chinese currency when Biden appeared to be in the lead.Protecting vital U.S. industries will be a theme under either administration: “I think there is going to be huge pressure to bring medical manufacturing back home,” Peter Tchir told me. “Why are we producing essential medicines in China?”Trade and the dollarIndeed, many traders agreed that “economic nationalism” — bringing supply chains back to the United States — would be a theme under the Biden administration as well. “Biden’s Made in America is the import substitution strategy that is very close to Trump,” Marc Chandler from Bannockburn Global Forex told me. The differences between them, he says, “Is more about style than substance.”Trade agreements are a different matter. Noting that that the U.S. is formally leaving the Paris Accord, Chandler said  Biden will seek to rejoin that agreement.As for the dollar, both the import substitution strategy and the monetary and fiscal policy mix lends itself to a weaker dollar.“We will have a twin deficit: we will have a budget deficit, and a large trade deficit,” Chandler told me. “U.S. interest rates should be expected to rise to attract investors, but rates can’t rise much, so the alternative is to have the dollar lower. As the U.S. borrows more money, the dollar will fall.” He too pointed to the strength of the Chinese yuan against the dollar.Bigger government, no matter who is in the White House?No matter who wins, many feel the 2020s “will be characterized by bigger government,” Bank of America said in a recent note to clients, citing among other things, the wider acceptance of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) that proposes governments should not worry about deficits and should print money unless it becomes inflationary.David Kelly from JP Morgan agrees: “In today’s environment of near-zero or even negative interest rates and massive central-bank purchases of government securities, we are witnessing a move in the direction of MMT.”Others cite the growth of Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) investing, which implies investors pushing for more social changes and increased government regulations.For the moment, a Goldilocks marketFor the moment, these broad policy questions are being put aside as traders celebrate the potential for a perfect scenario: a new President with a check on his ability to raise taxes and impose more regulation.“We are going to have a much better economy next year than a lot of people realize, regardless of who is in power,” Tchir told me. “We are really going to get the stimulus that goes beyond the band-aid, with big infrastructure, and attempts to repatriate jobs from abroad.”Subscribe to CNBC PRO for exclusive insights and analysis, and live business day programming from around the world. What’s next for markets? With the election over, some old themes will be re-emerging, regardless of who will be president. The rally is due to better earnings visibility- Advertisement – – Advertisement – “The good news is the uncertainty surrounding a very contentious election should soon be behind us, and investors can focus on the macro influences that ultimately drive direction: inflation, interest rates, money availability, and the prospects for domestic and global growth,” Tony Dwyer from Cannacord Genuity wrote in a note to clients.In discussions with traders, several “old themes” came up over and over: the extent of fiscal and monetary stimulus, China policy, and trade and the dollar. One important trend either president will be facing:  the prospects for much bigger government.Fiscal and monetary stimulus: how much?- Advertisement – On one issue, all traders agree: the market rally is largely due to the unlikelihood of higher corporate and individual taxes next year.“The Senate numbers from the 2020 election indicate that higher corporate taxes are unlikely, giving us and others more conviction in 2021 EPS estimates,” Tobias Levkovich from Citigroup said in a note to clients. Like many, Levkovich estimated that higher taxes could shave at least 5% off earnings in 2021, but “that possibility has dissipated,” Levkovich said.Back to fundamentals- Advertisement –last_img read more

UAE celebrates International Women’s Day as reflection of national ambitions

first_imgThe country’s constitution guarantees equal rights between men and women, which helped the emirates leader in various gender equality indices, supplementing its advances in education and literacy.The UAE acknowledges that women’s participation in decision-making was a key factor in the country’s economic development. In 2012, for instance, the UAE government decided to give more leverage to women in leadership, allowing them to sit in the highest position in every institution.Ever since, around 15 percent of the available seats in government institutions must be allocated to women and 50 percent for the Federal National Council, aligning with Al-Nahyan’s vision to further involve women in developing the country’s vital sectors.“At least nine out of the 32 ministers in the current government are women. In the Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Ministry, for instance, almost half of the employees are women,” the statement said.The Gulf state bears the world’s highest percentage of women in the public sector at 66 percent, of which 30 percent are in positions of leadership or related to decision-making.At least 75 percent of the positions in the education and healthcare sectors are filled by women. Two-thirds of the country’s university graduates are women, of which 77 percent studied computer sciences and another 44 percent specializing in engineering – more than twice as many than in Western Europe or the United States.In 2014, the UAE also opened the Khawla bint Al Azwar Military School as the first military academy for women in the region.Currently, at least 23,000 women entrepreneurs in the UAE are running projects worth US$13.6 billion. Around 19 percent of the members of the country’s chamber of industry and commerce are women.As such, the UAE has committed to empowering women globally to take on greater roles in entrepreneurship and has contributed at least $50 million to the Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative (We-Fi), a collaborative partnership among 14 governments, eight multilateral development banks (MDBs) and other public and private sector stakeholders hosted by the World Bank Group. Women in the United Arab Emirates joined the international community on Sunday in celebrating International Women’s Day. The Middle Eastern country represents a beacon of hope for the advancement of women’s empowerment in a region, which has been predominantly patriarchal, according to the UAE government.The annual celebration is commemorated every March 8 to acknowledge women’s role and contributions to political, cultural, social and economic development.In a statement made available to The Jakarta Post on Sunday, the Emirati government through its missions in Jakarta said the country had taken a strong position in women’s empowerment. “Women have been the key partner of the development in the country and have been playing a vital role in elevating [the capabilities] of UAE’s future generation,” the statement read.UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al-Nahyan has taken a clear position to empower women in the country by encouraging them to assume some of the highest positions in various sectors.“Some of the ministerial posts within the Emirati government is being assumed by women. Some are also holding their positions as officials of the Federal National Council,” the UAE government said, adding that women had also maintained a decisive role in the country’s justice system.In 2012, the UAE became the first country in the Arab region to allow women to participate as councillors.center_img Topics :last_img read more

Betting shops facing bleak future as numbers keep dropping

first_imgShare The latest statistics from the UK Gambling Commission released at the end of last year contained with them some figures for betting shop closures that might yet be a sign of things to come for UK bookmakers.The total number of shops as of the end of September 2017 stood at 8,502, down 304 from March this year and 412 outlets down from the same time last year.   Half of the total is accounted for by Ladbrokes Coral which, according to the Commission statistics has shed 255 shops since March. The company said in its mid-November trading statement that 96 outlets had been shuttered in the past three-month period. There would appear to be some minor overlap with Betfred over the period. Ladbrokes Coral sold a parcel of 359 shops as part of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) mandated offloading in October last year. In the six months to September this year, Betfred added 34 shops to end the period with 1,671 outlets.Still, the industry-wide 4.6 percent fall comes ahead of any predicted negative effect from whatever stakes limit for FOBTs is finally decided upon under the auspices of the triennial review and would seem to point to further falls in the years ahead.As Paul Leyland, partner at gambling consultancy Regulus, pointed out, this is a “material shift” ahead of the review and fears remain that an even bigger shop closure figure could be in the offing should the worst happen with stake sizes.All this is against a general backdrop of changes in retail behaviour in the UK which suggest the move to online shopping is becoming ever more pronounced. In early December, for instance, Thomas Cook said it was closing 50 stores in the UK due to the increasing shift to online, a phenomenon that UK betting is only too aware of.Yet, there are reasons to believe that it is too early to pronounce on the death of the betting shop in the UK. Partly, this is down to culture. As one commentator in the FT said recently about those that are still loyal to cash, it is the favoured means of transaction among the very rich, the very poor, the criminal and the merely old-fashioned. Betting shop habitués are highly represented among at least three of those.As much as we know that the major shop estates of Ladbrokes Coral, William Hill and Betfred have long tails, it is hard to quantify just how many of these would be tipped into loss-making territory by any change in the stakes and prizes regime.It is telling, for instance, that the ‘contingent value right’ at the heart of the recent GVC takeover of Ladbrokes Coral presents a wide disparity of outcomes depending on what level of stake is finally handed down.In truth, no one yet knows what the impact of a lower stake limit will have on either individual estates or on the UK picture as a whole. Despite the warnings from the industry of job losses in the thousands and shop closures blighting every high street, it is likely that for a period a phony war will take place that will see the larger operators holding out in multiple locations to see who blinks first.This is one effect of the recent clustering seen in many high streets; the assumption on the part of the bookmakers is that the custom from the first shop to close will disperse to rival shops in the locality. No one wants to be that first shop and everyone wants to be the last man standing. It is a Mexican stand-off that could last a long while.But there is one sub-sector which might not be quiet so able to stand its ground while the shakeout takes place. The independent sector has long been complaining that both industry trends and the regulatory backdrop is putting their collective presence on the high street under threat and the evidence of the Commission statistics would appear to back that up.Since March 2015 the total of other shops in the Commission data has fallen by 195 or 15 percent to 1,089 as of the end of September. Taking Paddy Power Betfair’s 357 shops out of that equation, the percentage fall is a very steep 20 percent.As one analyst put it, the independents are “much less able to withstand” negative shocks and without the online backup, will be particularly vulnerable to further pain caused by the triennial review.With costs rising and major competitors willing to hold out even in unprofitable locales in the hope of reaping any omni-channel benefit to be wrung from the high street, the independent sector is facing a potentially existential squeeze. Time – and luck – might be running out and the some of the political decisions due to be made early this year will play a huge part of the future.________________The future of the Retail Betting industry will be discussed and debated at the upcoming ‘Betting on Football 2018 Conference’ (#bofcon2018 – 20-23 March – London – Stamford Bridge). Click on the below banner for more information… Submit Share StumbleUpon Related Articles SBC Magazine Issue 10: Kaizen Gaming rebrand and focus for William Hill CEO August 25, 2020 Betfred extends World Snooker Championship deal until 2022 August 17, 2020 Betfred counters Oppenheimer bid in race to rescue Phumelela August 26, 2020last_img read more

Herdzelas to play in the Main Draw of the Challenger in Wesley Chapel

first_imgTalented B&H tennis player Dea Herdzelas qualified for the main draw of ITF Challenger tournament in Wesley Chapel (USA).Nineteen year old Dea from Sarajevo won in the third, final round of qualifiers against American Brooke Austin with score 7: 5, 6: 4.Herdzelas is one of eight players who qualified in the main part of the tournament, which is played for a prize of 25,000 USD.(Source: novovrijeme.ba)last_img

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning to join Tiger Woods-Phil Mickelson rematch for coronavirus relief

first_imgCNBC reported that it will be Brady and Mickelson vs. Manning and Woods in a two-on-two charity match scheduled as a live event likely in May, orgranized by the PGA Tour and AT&T’s Warner Media.MORE: NFL’s Nickelodeon connection has us comparing QBs to “SpongeBob” charactersAlthough an initial report from veteran golf journalist Robert Lusetich suggested the event would be on pay-per-view, Brady-Mickelson vs. Manning-Woods is more likely to air on a Turner Sports network, per CNBC.Hearing Tiger v Phil II might indeed be happening as a PPV event but that the caveat is that each will have a partner. Two names being mentioned? Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.— Robert Lusetich (@RobertLusetich) March 30, 2020When Woods and Mickelson had their much-hyped one-on-one match in 2018 in Las Vegas, it was broadcast by Turner Sports. Mickelson won the $9 million winner-take-all thriller by edging Woods after 22 holes. Tom Brady remains the biggest sports story in 2020, the year mostly without sports. Although regular PGA Tour play is suspended, recreational golf is still one sports outlet available for many of the Amercians who are under stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders because of the coronavirus pandemic. Now Brady playing golf is part of the story.Before Brady gets into action for his new NFL team, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he’s about to hit the links to help Tiger Woods and Phil Mickeson raise money for COVID-19 relief — along with good friend and former quarterback rival Peyton Manning. With coronavirus social-distancing measures in place in 2020, CNBC also reports the match would strictly follow all the guidelines, including no crowd, a skeleton production crew and all four golfers keeping six feet apart throughout the event. There also won’t be same location hype, as the golf course at which Brady, Mickelson, Manning and Woods play will remain udisclosed until the event.Speaking of Vegas, with sportsbooks hungry for live sports, it didn’t take long for the match to have betting odds. According to SportsBetting.ag, Manning and Woods, both 44, would be considerrable favorites at -180, while Mickelson, 49 and Brady, 42, would be significant underdogs at +140.Brady and Manning have had a ton of fun playing golf and taking gentle jabs at each other’s games. Should Manning emerge victorious with Woods, Brady already has his excuse ready.Not true. Peyton is the better golfer right now. He’s had much more practice these past few years. https://t.co/etoGOmd0c0— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) February 7, 2020last_img read more